Based on the latest results from Maine and Washington, I can project that the following states would legalize same-sex marriage via referenda if an election were held today (percent of vote listed in parentheses):
California (50)
Connecticut (50)
Delaware (51)
District of Columbia (82)
Hawaii (61)
Illinois (51)
Maryland (51)
Massachusetts (51)
New York (51)
Rhode Island (52)
Vermont (57)
I have also projected the states that are expected to pass "everything but marriage" same-sex domestic partnership laws:
California (56)
Connecticut (56)
Delaware (57)
District of Columbia (88)
Hawaii (67)
Illinois (57)
Maine (53)
Maryland (57)
Massachusetts (57)
Michigan (52)
Nevada(50)
New Jersey (52)
New Mexico (52)
New York (57)
Oregon (52)
Pennsylvania (50)
Rhode Island (58)
Vermont (63)
Washington (53)
Wisconsin (51)
