Final Projection: Obama Leads 233 - 191, Likely to Win

Obama is currently projected to win 19 states (233 EVs) to Romney's 23 states (191 EVs). Eight states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has a 92.2 percent probability of victory.

State: Probability of Obama Win (% of vote)
Colorado: 63% (50.5%)
Florida: 60% (50.3%)
Iowa: 61% (50.4%)
New Hampshire: 61% (50.4%)
North Carolina: 44% (49.1%)
Ohio: 57% (50.1%)
Pennsylvania: 76% (51.6%)
Virginia: 71% (51.1%)