Saturday, July 21, 2012

Obama's Lead Now Down to 207 to 180

Obama is currently projected to win 17 states (207 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Eleven states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be somewhat favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 68 percent probability of victory.