Obama Lead Down to 223 to 191 EVs

Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (223 EVs) to Romney's 23 states (191 EVs). Nine states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has a 89.0 percent probability of victory.

State: Probability of Obama Win
Colorado: 68%
Florida: 63%
Iowa: 54%
New Hampshire: 55%
North Carolina: 42%
Ohio: 53%
Pennsylvania: 71%
Wisconsin: 79%
Virginia: 66%