Sunday, June 3, 2012
Obama's Lead Shrinks: President Favored 223 to 180 in Electoral College
Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (223 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Ten states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be somewhat favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 80 percent probability of victory.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Obama Leads Romney 223 to 164 in the Electoral College
Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (223 EVs) to Romney's 21 states (164 EVs). Eleven states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 86 percent probability of victory.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Last Post
I am going to call it a night. I think that Republicans are clearly going to have the upper hand--procedurally. They will have an ample majority in the House and the Democrats will not have control in the Senate.
Senate
Outcome So-far: +6 Republican
Projected Outcome: +7 Republican, 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans
House
Outcome So-far: +59 Republican
Projected Outcome: +64 Republican, 243 Republicans, 192 Democrats
Senate
Outcome So-far: +6 Republican
Projected Outcome: +7 Republican, 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans
House
Outcome So-far: +59 Republican
Projected Outcome: +64 Republican, 243 Republicans, 192 Democrats
Republicans Expected to Gain 60 House Seats
Senate
Outcome So-far: +3 Republican
Projected Outcome: +7 Republican, 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans
House
Outcome So-far: +21 Republican
Projected Outcome: +60 Republican, 239 Republicans, 196 Democrats
Outcome So-far: +3 Republican
Projected Outcome: +7 Republican, 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans
House
Outcome So-far: +21 Republican
Projected Outcome: +60 Republican, 239 Republicans, 196 Democrats
Saturday, October 30, 2010
A Note to Readers
On election night, I will be providing live updates of the results. I will update an election board, which will show the status of the most vulnerable House and Senate seats, along with a running probability of a Republican takeover in each chamber. Please visit my site so that you can all receive this information in realtime.
-Jacob
-Jacob
FINAL List of Vulnerable House Seats
In the final analysis of individual U.S. House seats, 89 Democrats and six Republicans are now listed as vulnerable. In the past week, Chellie Pingree (ME-1) was added to the list of vulnerable Democratic Representatives.
As the reader may notice, the Republicans are likely to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democrats will probably win four or five Republican seats. However, the Republicans have at least a 90 percent probability of winning each of 41 Democratic seats. They have at least a 50 percent probability of winning each of the next 22 most vulnerable seats. They even have over a 10 percent probability of winning each of the 64th through 82nd most vulnerable seats. This analysis implies that the Republicans are expected gain approximately 41 + 1/2*41 = 62 seats and lose about four seats. Thus, the Republicans are poised to net about 58 seats, while they only need to gain 39 seats to take control of the House.
Correction: Note that WV-3 is not open.
Democrats by State (Open seats in bold)
Democrats by Vulnerability (Open seats in bold)
Republicans (Open seats in bold)
As the reader may notice, the Republicans are likely to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democrats will probably win four or five Republican seats. However, the Republicans have at least a 90 percent probability of winning each of 41 Democratic seats. They have at least a 50 percent probability of winning each of the next 22 most vulnerable seats. They even have over a 10 percent probability of winning each of the 64th through 82nd most vulnerable seats. This analysis implies that the Republicans are expected gain approximately 41 + 1/2*41 = 62 seats and lose about four seats. Thus, the Republicans are poised to net about 58 seats, while they only need to gain 39 seats to take control of the House.
Correction: Note that WV-3 is not open.
Democrats by State (Open seats in bold)
Democrats by Vulnerability (Open seats in bold)
Republicans (Open seats in bold)
FINAL House Prediction: Republicans Gain 52
Based on polling data released over the last nine months, Republicans are expected to gain between 41 and 62 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (with a 90 percent level of credibility). According to the model, the most likely outcome is about a 52 seat gain by Republicans, one more seat than the previous estimate. The Republicans seem to be poised to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives with the largest electoral landslide since 1948. In fact, based on a Monte Carlo simulation, the Republicans have a 97 percent probability of retaking the House.
A statistical model that analyzes the results of 15 independent polling firms indicates that Republicans lead Democrats by a margin of 3.9 percent on the so-called generic ballot--a measure of national voter preference between the two major congressional caucuses. This figure is 0.6 percent greater than the mid-October estimate. The final estimate implies that, if the election were held today, Republicans would achieve approximately a 27 seat majority over the Democrats--a historically modest, but commanding advantage.
The charts below provide the change in voter preferences over time, along with the probability distribution of the number of seats gained by Republicans on election day. See my April 30, 2010 post for an explanation of my methodology.
A statistical model that analyzes the results of 15 independent polling firms indicates that Republicans lead Democrats by a margin of 3.9 percent on the so-called generic ballot--a measure of national voter preference between the two major congressional caucuses. This figure is 0.6 percent greater than the mid-October estimate. The final estimate implies that, if the election were held today, Republicans would achieve approximately a 27 seat majority over the Democrats--a historically modest, but commanding advantage.
The charts below provide the change in voter preferences over time, along with the probability distribution of the number of seats gained by Republicans on election day. See my April 30, 2010 post for an explanation of my methodology.
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