Obama is currently projected to win 20 states (253 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Eight states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 97.6** percent probability of victory.
State: Prob. of Obama Win
Colorado: 70%
Florida: 34%
Iowa: 48%
Indiana: 69%*
New Hampshire: 78%
North Carolina: 45%
Ohio: 36%
Virginia: 75%
* No recent polling data available.
** 91.8 percent probability if Indiana excluded.
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