Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Obama (Still) Leads 233 to 191 in Electoral College

Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (233 EVs) to Romney's 23 states (191 EVs). Nine states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has a 95.8 percent probability of victory.

State: Probability of Obama Win
Colorado: 76%
Florida: 68%
Iowa: 57%
Minnesota: 72%
New Hampshire: 73%
North Carolina: 38%
Ohio: 51%
Wisconsin: 77%
Virginia: 79%

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