Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (233 EVs) to Romney's 23 states (191 EVs). Nine states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has a 95.8 percent probability of victory.
State: Probability of Obama Win
Colorado: 76%
Florida: 68%
Iowa: 57%
Minnesota: 72%
New Hampshire: 73%
North Carolina: 38%
Ohio: 51%
Wisconsin: 77%
Virginia: 79%
