Senate Prediction: Republicans to Gain Four Seats

Using a similar methodology as my model for the U.S. House, I predict that the Republicans will gain four seats in the U.S. Senate. Here is a seat-by-seat summary (margin of victory in parentheses; party turnover in italics):

Safe Democratic, 6 Seats (15 percent+) :
Boxer (CA)
Inouye (HI)
Mikulski (MD)
Schumer (NY-A)
Gillibrand (NY-B)
Leahy (VT)

Strong Democratic, 6 Seats (5.0 -15.0 percent):
CT (Dodd)
IL (Burris)
Reid (NV)
Wyden (OR)
Murray (WA)
Feingold (WI)

Weak Democratic, 2 Seats (0.0 - 5.0 percent):
PA (Spector)
FL (LeMieux)

Weak Republican, 3 Seats (0.0 - 5.0 percent):
Bennet (CO)
DE (Kaufman)
NH (Gregg)

Strong Republican 6 Seats (5.0 - 15 percent):
McCain (AZ)
Grassley (IA)
IN (Bayh)
MO (Bond)
Burr (NC)
OH (Voinovich)


Safe Republican 13 Seats (15.0 percent+):
Shelby (AL)
Lincoln (AR)
Crapo (ID)
Isakson (GA)
Murkowski (AK)
KS (Brownback)
KY (Bunning)
Vitter (LA)
ND (Dorgan)
Coburn (OK)
DeMint (SC)
Thune (SD)
UT (Bennett)