Most Vulnerable House Seats

Now that Nate Silver has come out with his own seat-by-seat house projection, I have decided to publish my list of most vulnerable Democratic and Republican seats. My methodology is not very sophisticated and I do not assign probabilities to whether a given seat switches party. However, this list should provide the reader an idea of which seats will be the first to switch from Democratic to Republican.

My ranking of the most vulnerable seats is essentially based on the 2008 presidential vote, demographic composition, and ideological orientation of each district. A Partisan Index score of under 30.0 should be interpreted as a solidly Republican district, while a score of over 70.0 indicates that the district is solidly Democratic. Districts between 30.0 and 45.0 are Republican leaning and districts between 55.0 and 70.0 are Democratic leaning. Districts in the 45.0 to 55.0 range indicate marginal status.

I list the one hundred most vulnerable Democratic seats and the twenty-five most vulnerable Republican seats. Open seats are in bold.