FINAL List of Vulnerable House Seats

In the final analysis of individual U.S. House seats, 89 Democrats and six Republicans are now listed as vulnerable. In the past week, Chellie Pingree (ME-1) was added to the list of vulnerable Democratic Representatives.

As the reader may notice, the Republicans are likely to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democrats will probably win four or five Republican seats. However, the Republicans have at least a 90 percent probability of winning each of 41 Democratic seats. They have at least a 50 percent probability of winning each of the next 22 most vulnerable seats. They even have over a 10 percent probability of winning each of the 64th through 82nd most vulnerable seats. This analysis implies that the Republicans are expected gain approximately 41 + 1/2*41 = 62 seats and lose about four seats. Thus, the Republicans are poised to net about 58 seats, while they only need to gain 39 seats to take control of the House.

Correction: Note that WV-3 is not open.

Democrats by State (Open seats in bold)


Democrats by Vulnerability (Open seats in bold)


Republicans (Open seats in bold)