Obama Leads 253 to 180 in Electoral College

Obama is currently projected to win 20 states (253 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Eight states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 97.6** percent probability of victory.

State: Prob. of Obama Win
Colorado: 70%
Florida: 34%
Iowa: 48%
Indiana: 69%*
New Hampshire: 78%
North Carolina: 45%
Ohio: 36%
Virginia: 75%

* No recent polling data available.
** 91.8 percent probability if Indiana excluded.

Obama's Lead Remains Steady at 207 to 180

Obama is currently projected to win 17 states (207 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Eleven states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be somewhat favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 68 percent probability of victory.

Obama's Lead Now Down to 207 to 180

Obama is currently projected to win 17 states (207 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Eleven states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be somewhat favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 68 percent probability of victory.

Obama's Lead Shrinks: President Favored 223 to 180 in Electoral College

Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (223 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Ten states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be somewhat favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 80 percent probability of victory.

Obama Leads Romney 223 to 164 in the Electoral College

Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (223 EVs) to Romney's 21 states (164 EVs). Eleven states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 86 percent probability of victory.

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I am going to call it a night. I think that Republicans are clearly going to have the upper hand--procedurally. They will have an ample majority in the House and the Democrats will not have control in the Senate.

Senate
Outcome So-far: +6 Republican
Projected Outcome: +7 Republican, 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans

House
Outcome So-far: +59 Republican
Projected Outcome: +64 Republican, 243 Republicans, 192 Democrats

Republicans Expected to Gain 60 House Seats

Senate
Outcome So-far: +3 Republican
Projected Outcome: +7 Republican, 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans

House
Outcome So-far: +21 Republican
Projected Outcome: +60 Republican, 239 Republicans, 196 Democrats