Most Vulnerable House Seats, Part IV

In the tables below, I assign probabilities to Republican gains in the 81 most vulnerable Democratic seats. I also list probabilities to Democratic gains in the six most vulnerable Republican seats.

As the reader may notice, the Republicans are likely to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democrats will probably win four or five Republican seats. However, the Republicans have at least a 90 percent probability of winning each of 33 Democratic seats. They have at least a 50 percent probability of winning each of the next 23 most vulnerable seats. They even have over a 10 percent probability of winning each of the 57th through 75th most vulnerable seats. This analysis implies that the Republicans are expected gain approximately 33 + 1/2*42 = 54 seats and lose about four seats. Thus, the Republicans are poised to net about 50 seats, while they only need to gain 39 seats to take control of the House.

Democrats by State (Bold indicates open seat)


Democrats by Rank (Bold indicates open seat)


Republicans (Bold indicates open seat)