Most Vulnerable House Seats: Situation Continues to Worsen for Democrats

In the latest analysis of individual House Seats, seven additional Democrats are now listed as vulnerable. The seven Democrats are House veterans Sanford Bishop Jr. (GA), Leonard Boswell (IA), Bruce Braley (IA), Bob Etheridge (NC), James Oberstar (MN), Nick Rahall (WV), and Ike Skelton (MO). Hence, 88 Democrats are listed as vulnerable, while only six Republicans are at risk of losing.

As the reader may notice, the Republicans are likely to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democrats will probably win four or five Republican seats. However, the Republicans have at least a 90 percent probability of winning each of 37 Democratic seats. They have at least a 50 percent probability of winning each of the next 26 most vulnerable seats. They even have over a 10 percent probability of winning each of the 64th through 82nd most vulnerable seats. This analysis implies that the Republicans are expected gain approximately 37 + 1/2*44 = 59 seats and lose about four seats. Thus, the Republicans are poised to net about 55 seats, while they only need to gain 39 seats to take control of the House.

Democrats by State (Bold indicates open seat)


Democrats by Rank (Bold indicates open seat)


Republicans (Bold indicates open seat)