Final Projection: Obama Leads 233 - 191, Likely to Win

Obama is currently projected to win 19 states (233 EVs) to Romney's 23 states (191 EVs). Eight states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has a 92.2 percent probability of victory.

State: Probability of Obama Win (% of vote)
Colorado: 63% (50.5%)
Florida: 60% (50.3%)
Iowa: 61% (50.4%)
New Hampshire: 61% (50.4%)
North Carolina: 44% (49.1%)
Ohio: 57% (50.1%)
Pennsylvania: 76% (51.6%)
Virginia: 71% (51.1%)

Obama Lead Down to 223 to 191 EVs

Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (223 EVs) to Romney's 23 states (191 EVs). Nine states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has a 89.0 percent probability of victory.

State: Probability of Obama Win
Colorado: 68%
Florida: 63%
Iowa: 54%
New Hampshire: 55%
North Carolina: 42%
Ohio: 53%
Pennsylvania: 71%
Wisconsin: 79%
Virginia: 66%

Obama (Still) Leads 233 to 191 in Electoral College

Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (233 EVs) to Romney's 23 states (191 EVs). Nine states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has a 95.8 percent probability of victory.

State: Probability of Obama Win
Colorado: 76%
Florida: 68%
Iowa: 57%
Minnesota: 72%
New Hampshire: 73%
North Carolina: 38%
Ohio: 51%
Wisconsin: 77%
Virginia: 79%

Obama Leads 233 to 191 in Electoral College

Obama is currently projected to win 19 states (233 EVs) to Romney's 23 states (191 EVs). Eight states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 94.0 percent probability of victory.

State: Prob. of Obama Win
Colorado: 70%
Florida: 68%
Iowa: 52%
New Hampshire: 78%
North Carolina: 41%
Pennsylvania: 77%
Ohio: 51%
Virginia: 73%

Obama Leads 253 to 180 in Electoral College

Obama is currently projected to win 20 states (253 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Eight states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming Obama has the listed probabilities of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 97.6** percent probability of victory.

State: Prob. of Obama Win
Colorado: 70%
Florida: 34%
Iowa: 48%
Indiana: 69%*
New Hampshire: 78%
North Carolina: 45%
Ohio: 36%
Virginia: 75%

* No recent polling data available.
** 91.8 percent probability if Indiana excluded.

Obama's Lead Remains Steady at 207 to 180

Obama is currently projected to win 17 states (207 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Eleven states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be somewhat favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 68 percent probability of victory.

Obama's Lead Now Down to 207 to 180

Obama is currently projected to win 17 states (207 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Eleven states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be somewhat favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 68 percent probability of victory.

Obama's Lead Shrinks: President Favored 223 to 180 in Electoral College

Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (223 EVs) to Romney's 22 states (180 EVs). Ten states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be somewhat favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 80 percent probability of victory.

Obama Leads Romney 223 to 164 in the Electoral College

Obama is currently projected to win 18 states (223 EVs) to Romney's 21 states (164 EVs). Eleven states are projected to be toss-ups. If the election were held today, Obama would be heavily favored to win reelection. Assuming that Obama has a 50 percent probability of winning each toss-up, a statistical simulation indicates that Obama has an 86 percent probability of victory.